The Flagrant Five Power Rankings will be appearing on a monthly basis, generally toward the end of each month. This look was written prior to the start of the season, and thus I don't plan to be held accountable for any of what follows...
1. San Antonio Spurs—You get the feeling they have one more year, and the additions of veteran power forward Antonio McDyess through free agency and rookie big man DeJuan Blair through the draft should help limit Tim Duncan’s minutes, saving him for the playoffs. With Gregg Popovich at the helm it’s difficult to see this team sliding too far into the pack.
2. Orlando Magic—Despite losing Hedo Turkoglu, the do-it-all forward that keyed their unique lineups last year, the Magic come back more talented than ever. They lost Courtney Lee via trade, but added Vince Carter, Ryan Anderson, Matt Barnes, and Brandon Bass. Heck, even Jason Williams unretired to join them. They may not be able to force the same kinds of mismatches as last year, but they strengthened their team and still have all kinds of matchup difficulties (namely featuring two athletic 6-10 forwards that can shoot the three in Anderson and Rashard Lewis). Until someone proves they’re better in the East, this is the pick.
3. Los Angeles Lakers—The Lakers added Ron Artest and kept newly-hitched (and soon-to-be-annulled) Lamar Odom, they should be the top team, right? Wrong. They lost Trevor Ariza, a younger, cheaper, more athletic version of Artest that was more than happy to do anything to win. If Andrew Bynum can stay healthy and fulfill his promise they’ll move up sooner rather than later.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers—I felt it was a relatively disappointing offseason for the Cavs. They’re in a tough spot, simultaneously trying to win now but build for a future bright enough to entice LeBron James to stay after this season. They added Shaq, but it’s not clear how he solves any major problem they had last season (namely, floor spacing and pick & roll defense—in fact, he’ll hurt both). They did get him for nothing, but he’s not their savior. A move I like more, actually, is getting shooting guard Anthony Parker, especially if Delonte West is unable to play for a long-stretch. The Cavs are still a very good team, but I don’t see them contending realistically for the championship unless James has the best season ever or they make one more addition.
5. Boston Celtics—They’re in a dead heat with Cleveland, I just knocked Boston down a notch for not offering fan-favorite Leon Powe a contract extension. Powe did everything the Celtics asked (except NOT blow out his knees), and they unceremoniously let him go after the season. They signed Rasheed Wallace as cover for an injured Kevin Garnett, and added Marquis Daniels as well. For all the window dressing, this team will go as far as Kevin Garnett carries them. If he’s healthy in the playoffs the Celtics are the favorites for the Eastern Conference.
6. Portland Trail Blazers—The Blazers largely stood pat this offseason, choosing instead to sign Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to big extensions, adding only point guard Andre Miller. Ever afraid to make a good impression, Miller did nothing to ingratiate himself early in camp, being the only player to fail coach Nate McMillan’s conditioning test. On a team that is known for its great off the court chemistry, adding a stealy, unfriendly point guard like Miller is both understandable yet puzzling. That said, the Blazers figure to get better simply by maturing and getting some healthy time from a leaner, meaner Greg Oden.
7. New Orleans Hornets—With a lot of fresh faces, Chris Paul is the ideal point guard to bring them all together. High flying, mercurial center Tyson Chandler is out, replaced by a more conventional unit in Emeka Okafor. New Orleans boasts a strong starting lineup, but the success of the Hornets will depend heavily on their reserves; if some combination of Ike Diogu, Darius Songaila, and blooming big man Hilton Armstrong can improve on last year’s efforts, the Hornets will be a very dangerous team.
8. Denver Nuggets—Oh, what to make of these Nuggets. With JR Smith, Carmelo Anthony, and Chauncey Billups (not to mention rookie PG Ty Lawson who looks as unstoppable off the bounce as he was in college), the Nuggets can put points on the board with anyone. However, one can’t help but get the feeling everything came together for them last year—Smith played to his potential, Nene stayed healthy, and George Karl put in effort. Look for the Nuggets to experience a slide this year, as is customary for Karl after big years, but the leadership of Billups and ‘Melo should stop them from sliding too far.
9. Utah Jazz—Utah had an interesting offseason, resigning Paul Millsap after Portland signed him to an offer sheet while not bowing to Carlos Boozer’s trade demands after he exercised his player option for 2009-2010. While they both play the same position, the duo could be a force to be reckoned with, or it could collapse in on itself like a dying star. Given Jerry Sloan at the helm and Deron Williams manning the point, I’m leaning toward the former. One of the deepest teams in the league, the Jazz figure to compete with Denver and New Orleans for home-court advantage come playoff time.
10. Dallas Mavericks—Much has been made of the increasing age of the Mavs. IF this team had been assembled in 2004 or 2005, we’d be talking about them as the favorites for the championship. Unfortunately for them it’s 2009, and their stars have a little wear on the tires; Jason Kidd is a shell defensively, Shawn Marion has to re-prove himself after mediocre stints in Miami and Toronto, and Dirk Nowitzki is coming off a bizarre offseason that saw his con-artist girlfriend make false pregnancy claims. Despite all of this, the Mavericks put out a starting lineup that can compete with anyone, they simply lack any semblance a depth. This was only exacerbated by the loss of emerging forward Brandon Bass to the Magic.
11. Chicago Bulls—The Bulls have been one of the league’s more promising teams for some awhile now, and its high time they got their act together. Derrick Rose looks like a fixture at the point, but beyond him their lineup is a question. Ty Thomas flashes ability and stupidity concurrently more often than coach Vinny Del Negro would like and Bulls fans can stand; the Bulls have recently announced they wouldn’t extend Thomas’ contract, giving him some extra motivation to live up to his potential. Fellow big man Joakim Noah is also talented, but thus far has lacked the offensive repertoire to be a force. Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, John Salmons, and Brad Miller round out the rotation of solid players, but nobody here is scary.
12. Los Angeles Clippers—By the end of the year, the Clips won’t be here. Either they’ll decide to run and jump up with the Hornets and Nuggets of the world, or coach Mike Dunleavy will insist on a slower tempo and we’ll be starting the countdown on when Blake Griffin can get out. Either way, with Griffin, Baron Davis, and Eric Gordon this team is sure to be entertaining.
13. Memphis Grizzlies—If the NBA allowed multiple balls in play the Grizzlies would be hands down the best team around. Unfortunately, there’s only one, and there’s not much to make you think the scorers in Memphis are willing to share. Most of the value of having guys like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, and Allen Iverson comes from their ability to score in bunches, but if they can’t coexist peacefully they’ll be in trouble. That said, the Grizzlies had a very good draft in picking up players that can contribute right away, and if the aforementioned ball-hogging trio learns to share, Memphis could sneak into the playoff discussion.
14. Houston Rockets—On the surface, Houston is in deep trouble. Starting All-World center Yao Ming is out, as is Tracy McGrady (to start the year at least). What this will allow them to do, though, as we saw in the playoffs, is get up and down. Aaron Brooks is ideally suited to such a system, and there are athletic if undersized players up and down the roster. Look for the Rockets to push the tempo with middling success. Look for Luis Scola to emerge as a potential all-star filling Yao’s void in the middle.
15. Philadelphia 76ers—Another team that looks to push the tempo compared to a year ago, the 76ers have emerging players (Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young), a star (Andre Igoudala), and a star if healthy (Elton Brand). Like most other teams in this area, the ‘6ers could jump up the rankings if a few things break their way.
16. Phoenix Suns—The Suns are in a state of confusion, seemingly stuck between the Now and the Future. For Now, they have Steve Nash running the point with an athletic cast looking to return to the “7 seconds or less” mantra of the D’Antoni era under new coach Alvin Gentry. The status of Amar’e Stoudemire is up in the air, and with such a huge piece of their team in contract purgatory, the future of the Suns is anyone’s guess.
17. Atlanta Hawks—The Hawks, like the Bulls, were a young and exciting team. Unlike the Bulls though, the Hawks are still young. Josh Smith, despite being in the league seemingly since the Clinton presidency, is just 23. Al Horford, Jeff Teague, and Marvin Williams are also very young and promising in their own rights, while Mike Bibby stayed on to run the ship. At the center of this team is Joe Johnson, a very good player that makes all of his teammates better. What this team needs is someone to make Joe Johnson better, though—a max contract type player. Without that guy, the Hawks will improve only marginally, if at all.
18. New York Knicks—The Knicks seem intent on making a splash next year, making it highly unlikely that they’ll do so this year. Al Harrington is a bon-a-fide if under-known star, and deserves greater recognition. Nate Robinson and David Lee, both restricted free agents, we signed to only one year deals this offseason, and there’s not much in place of repute beyond those two—Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas, and Danilo Gallinari are all interesting players players, but none are assured of success in roles they’ll be filling this season.
19. Oklahoma City Thunder—The Zombie Sonics, as Bill Simmons calls them, are unquestionably the most interesting team in the league this season. How’s this for a young core: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Jeff Green. While the former two are on their way to becoming All-Stars (and in Durant’s case, a top-5 player in the league), the latter two are going to try to fit in and provide complementary skills. If Harden can become a rookie scoring presence, a likelihood given his college track record, the Thunder will compete for the playoffs in the West, and should be a ton of fun along the way regardless.
20. Miami Heat—The story in Miami usually starts and ends with Dwayne Wade, but this offseason the story has been the marijuana related exploits of young forward Michael Beasley. This is perhaps a good thing for the Heat, as they seem to have no discernable short term or long term plan beyond “Hope Wade Stays.” The Heat has to hope Wade carries them wherever they go, because if he misses time they’ll be going to the draft lottery.
21. New Jersey Nets—The big news around the Nets is their new Russian billionaire owner, but on the court there’s much to be excited about to. Devin Harris came into his own last year, and Brook Lopez proved to be a good investment. They’ll be joined by rookie Terrence Williams and promising all around contributor Chris Douglas-Roberts. Coming into the mix via the trade that cost them Vince Carter are defensive starter and talented second year man Courtney Lee, and veteran center Tony Battie. They’ll struggle against the top teams (really, everyone will), but should be in the mix against most other teams.
22. Washington Wizards—Just as they get Gilbert Arenas back from injury, forward Antawn Jamison is out 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury. If, when he returns, they can put their big 4 out there together (Arenas, Deshawn Stevenson, Caron Butler, Jamison), they’ll be an exciting team that can compete with anyone. To this point, though, they’ve been unable to stay healthy at the same time, and they just don’t have the depth to overcome those injuries.
23. Detroit Pistons—The Pistons retooled this year, making a splash in the summer of 2009 with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva when most teams are waiting until 2010. However, given that one would have expected those two to come cheaper than they did, and the Pistons are now somewhat stuck. They’re not a championship level team, though they still have veterans Tayshaun Price and Richard Hamilton. Rodney Stuckey is decent enough, and Austin Daye could be a valuable scorer if his wiry frame can hold up (and “wiry” is generous). They probably don’t deserve to be this low at the start of the season, but I just don’t see much on this roster to get excited about long-term or short-term.
24. Golden State Warriors—Golden State most assuredly won’t be here at the end of the year. With their individual talent alone, the Warriors could be a top-10 team. Stephen Curry has proven himself to be the team’s best passer; an especially valuable trait when one considers that he has range from about 45 feet. However, the team already had a small, quick point guard in Monta Ellis, and while the two of them can create horrible mismatches on defense they’ll be susceptible to large guards on the defensive end. Former captain Stephen Jackson had a bizarre preseason, and head coach Don Nelson appears to be as apathetic as a college senior in May. The Warriors will either bloom into a beautiful flower in spring, or whither and die like that same flower at first frost. Unfortunately at this point, the frost metaphor looks more apt. It’s a shame, too, because watching Anthony Randolph for a few games will have even the most steely-eyed basketball traditionalist salivating at the possibilities—if Nelson were interested, this would be one heck of a team.
25. Toronto Raptors—Up to this point, every team has had the potential to make the playoffs. In Toronto I see a stiff team that’s trying to win now to keep Chris Bosh, while simultaneously mortgaging it’s future even if Bosh stays. The only interesting piece here, for my money, is rookie Demar DeRozan.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves—Losing Kevin Love for the first two months of the season could prove disastrous for the T-Wolves, who were playing well at the end of last season with everyone in the lineup. They added point guards Johnny Flynn and Ramon Sessions [and drafted 3 more: Ricky Rubio (Spain), Nick Calethes (Greece) and Ty Lawson (sent to Denver)], while keeping the rest of the roster relatively similar. If they can keep the ship even until Love returns, they have an outside shot at challenging for a playoff spot. At the very least be sure to give them a watch for Al Jefferson—he’s a man among boys.
27. Charlotte Bobcats—The Bobcats are going to be like most Larry Brown coached teams; deliberate on offense, suffocating on defense, and unexciting. Unlike Brown’s previous teams, though, there’s not much exciting going on. Gerald Henderson, a rookie out of Duke, will get a shot after Raja Bell’s injury, but Brown’s style will keep the otherwise intriguing Bobcats (Boris Diaw, Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton, DJ Augustin) from playing up to their potential in a running system that suits them. This team will look like it’s in a straightjacket this season, likely frustrating players and fans alike.
28. Sacramento Kings—For these next three teams you may as well flip a coin; there’s not much going on anywhere. Tyreke Evans looks like a star in the making, and Kevin Martin is an underrated scorer whose injury-caused absence last year handcuffed the Kings. Other than those two, though, there are many question marks; Donte Green, Jason Thompson, and Sean May are a trio of intriguing young power forwards that each bring something different to the table, but unless they can combine powers like Captain Planet’s Planeteers they’re not ready to be starting NBA contributors yet. Spencer Hawes was recently benched so the aforementioned 6’9 May can start at center, a decision that likely says more about Hawes than May.
29. Indiana Pacers—O’ Danny Boy. It’s hard not to feel bad for Danny Granger, a guy who has improved noticeably every season since he came into the league. He became an All-Star last year for this squad, but beyond him there’s little to be enthralled by. TJ Ford is an interesting player, but he has struggled to stay healthy and has difficulty defending larger players, which is pretty much everyone. Center Troy Murphy is most valuable if you’re running a fantasy team, and younger center Roy Hibbert is plagued by foul issues (though, if he can stay out of foul trouble he’s a very good player).
30. Milwaukee Bucks—I’ll be watching a lot of Bucks games to see Brandon Jennings play with an athletic frontcourt, but beyond Michael Redd this team doesn’t have anyone that you’d want trying to get his own shot (not that anyone other than Redd and Jennings can anyway). That being said, coach Scott Skiles will have this team playing pretty good defense and in most games. I just don’t see how they’ll be able to score closing out the close games, and I DEFINITELY don’t see them blowing many teams out.
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